Let me make this clear: I do want the Ags to win against K-State - after all, I would hate for them to roll in the HUB in a couple of weeks with 3 or 4 losses and a losing record. It would take some of the luster off of the Rooster Bowl.
With that said, I must point out 2 glaring obstacles that stand in the Aggie's way in Manhattan:
1) The Ags are completely unproven away from Gomer Pyle Field - they have lost every time they've played on the road. I know Joe likes to take solace in the fact that the Ags "should have won" at Clemson, at the end of the day, the simple fact is they did not. The trip to Boulder last weekend.....well, it speaks for itself.
2) Bad defenses never win games - and the Ags have had their share of problems that are well-documented this year. Kansas State will score points on Saturday, and their defense should keep them in the game. I pick the Wildcats to win based upon the fact that they're much better coached and that the game is in Manhattan.
KSU 27
Ags 24
Now for the biggest game in Tech history (and it is):
Clearly, this is Leach's best team yet, and the Austin Yahoos are saying that this is Butterteeth's best team as well - mostly because he finally beat an OU team that quit after the first game of the season. (remember: this is always UT's best team/best recruiting class every year until Stoops cornholes them in Dallas) While it is true that this is the highest ranking Tech has had since 1977, it's also a fact that UT hasn't been undefeated this late in the season in over 20 years.
Tech's offense is better than UT's. Tech's second string receivers would be starting for the Horns, no doubt. Hendo is the best all-around RB in the league - he's proven that for the last 3 years with his stats. While UT's defense may be the best Tech has seen, let's remember that cuts both ways - Tech's offense is far and away superior to any other offense that the Horns will face.
Bottom line: I don't think the Horns offense can put points on the board like Tech can
Defensively, the Horns are once again one of the best in the nation. No surprise there. What is surprising is that Tech is vastly improved over last year, and leads the nation in recovered fumbles. Slay is 2nd in the country in forced fumbles, and quite possibly could be the hardest hitter in the country.
Botton line: Texas has the better D and players- no doubt. Tech, however, has a good defense that really pursues the ball well and lays the wood on the opposing teams.
We all know the common stats, but here are a few that not too many people take notice of:
UT commits more penalties than Tech, and Tech is second in the league in the catagory of penalties committed against them. Texas is 11th.
UT has missed 6 extra points thus far, while Tech is perfect (every Ag should understand the importance of this one)
What all of this means:
Vince Young, of course, scares me a little. I do wonder how the Tech defense will hold up late in the game, so the Tech offense will really have to make the most of every single possession.
While Tech has the most to prove, UT definitely has the most to lose. All of the pressure is on Butterteeth and his Horns.
Does Tech have a chance: Yes
Do I pick Tech to win: Yes
Will Tech win: Don't know - as I've said all season, if the team doesn't commit stupid penalties and continues to grind away, they should be able to outscore the Horns.
Red Raiders 37
Horns 32
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4 comments:
I've only had 2 beers, so I'm not just yet "picking myself up off the floor", for the record...
1. My Aggie math calculates that is is impossible for A&M to have a losing record the morning of November 5. The worst we can be is .500...I believe my Aggie math is surpassing the St Eds math on this one, but it's Aggie math, so who knows.
2."Ags unproven on the road": right on, bro. you are echoing my last few posts..sounds like you heard me loud and clear on this one??
3. I stand by the statement that we "should have" beaten Clemson...Dance Grooves Mobley "should have" caught that TD pass...punt team "should have" tackled the punt return man...defense "should have" held on the last Clemson possession...this is not rocket science, even for Blake or his hero, Mouse Davis, who both have a football lifetime of "should haves". I feel like Mary Matalin must feel trying to explain something to her husband..... (The trip to Boulder does speak for itself--meltdown.)
4. Bad defenses win games, but they never win BIG games (see UH football-1989, Florida Gator football-1995, Texas Tech football-1927-2004). We're actually in sync on this one, my prediction is that the Aggie defensive improvement continues. If the bad defense shows up, we won't win, obviously.
As far as your Tech prediction goes, I don't think I can find a single thing I disagree with, until your score prediction. I just don't know if Tech can score 37 on UT. We'll know in 48 hours...Overall, excellent, semi-objective prediction here young padowan.
Joe and Blake,
Wow, you guys are both actually being pretty honest and objective concerning your beloved squads.
Blake, believe it or not, I agree with most of your posting. The only thing that I must point out is that any stat you use concerning Tech needs to have an *asterick besides it. All Tech stats are meaningless considering your nonconference schedule...you may not want to admit that Blake, but you know it in your heart.
Don't get me wrong, it is great that you scored 60+ against some poor D-2 skools, but that won't translate against Texas.
Texas has a lot to lose, that is correct...but so does Tech. If you guys lose by more than 10 points, you will be labeled as the "same old redraiders". I can hear it now, "these guys were fine against indiana stata, but they are simply not ready to play with the big boys."
The good news is, you are there, you are in a big game! This is the biggest game at Tech in a while. I would argue that this is the biggest game involving 2 texas teams in a 5 years...it pains me to say that, but I can be honest.
Good Luck!
Agreed, fellas. There has been a very cool buzz around Austin all week, and it's unfortunate that I will not be in attendance.
UT is very tough, and it will take the very best performance from Tech to not only stay in the game, but to set up an opportunity to try to win it.
(I have to get one smart-ass comment in: unlike the Ags,at least Tech can put up 60 on a Div II school!)
Shit. The word verifcation was "beojk" - all it needed was a "v" to spell "Bevo".
Then again, in 2002, I had to drive over to my corporate home office in Westlake before we left for The Land of Collie. Guess what the name of the side street was? Reveille.
Hopefully, this is a similar omen!
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